Nigeria’s liquidity inflows projected to decline by nearly 15% in October 2026

The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has released projections indicating that total liquidity inflows into Nigeria’s financial system will decrease by 14.82% to N13.25 trillion in October 2026, down from an estimated N15.556 trillion in September.

This decline is primarily attributed to a 21.97% reduction in Open Market Operations (OMO) maturities, which are expected to fall from N11.6 trillion in September to N9.051 trillion in October. Despite the decrease, OMO maturities remain the largest contributor to liquidity inflows, accounting for approximately 68.3% of the projected total for October.

Alongside OMO maturities, Treasury bill maturities and Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distributions are anticipated to provide about N12.774 trillion combined, which represents 96.4% of the expected liquidity inflows. The forecasted overall reduction largely stems from fewer OMO securities scheduled for maturity in October.

In September, the Central Bank of Nigeria implemented heavy liquidity management measures and increased fixed-income issuance. OMO issuance rose by 45.61%, totaling N17.51 trillion—a record high for the month. Average yields also declined across Treasury bills, OMO, and Federal Government bonds, signaling changing market conditions.

System liquidity rose slightly by 1.14% to N4.703 trillion in September but demonstrated volatility following FAAC inflows and subsequent cash withdrawal through Cash Reserve Requirement debits, OMO sterilisation, and primary market issuances.

Looking ahead, the FMDA cautioned that ongoing liquidity management through CRR debits and aggressive OMO sterilisation, combined with the forecasted lower inflows, may continue to cause fluctuations in system liquidity. Since OMO maturities will constitute over two-thirds of October’s inflows, liquidity conditions will be sensitive to the volume of new OMO sales and other monetary measures taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria during this period.

For Nigerian financial markets and investors, these developments could influence interest rates and market liquidity, affecting borrowing costs and investment decisions across the economy.